Abstract
BackgroundSome governments have recently shown a willingness to introduce taxes on unhealthy foods and drinks. In 2011, the Irish Minister for Health proposed a 10% tax on sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs) as a measure to combat childhood obesity. Whilst this proposed tax received considerable support, the Irish Department of Finance requested a Health Impact Assessment of this measure. As part of this assessment we set out to model the impact on obesity.MethodsWe used price elasticity estimates to calculate the effect of a 10% SSB tax on SSB consumption. SSBs were assumed to have an own-price elasticity of −0.9 and we assumed a tax pass-on rate to consumers of 90%. Baseline SSB consumption and obesity prevalence, by age, sex and income-group, for Ireland were taken from the 2007 Survey on Lifestyle and Attitude to Nutrition. A comparative risk assessment model was used to estimate the effect on obesity arising from the predicted change in calorie consumption, both for the whole population and for sub-groups (age, sex, income). Sensitivity analyses were conducted on price-elasticity estimates and tax pass-on rates.ResultsWe estimate that a 10% tax on SSBs will result in a mean reduction in energy intake of 2.1 kcal/person/day. After adjustment for self-reported data, the 10% tax is predicted to reduce the percentage of the obese adult population (body mass index [BMI] ≥30 kg/m2) by 1.3%, equating to 9,900 adults (95% credible intervals: 7,750 to 12,940), and the overweight or obese population (BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2) by 0.7%, or 14,380 adults (9,790 to 17,820). Reductions in obesity are similar for men (1.2%) and women (1.3%), and similar for each income group (between 1.1% and 1.4% across income groups). Reductions in obesity are greater in young adults than older adults (e.g. 2.9% in adults aged 18–24 years vs 0.6% in adults aged 65 years and over).ConclusionsThis study suggests that a tax on SSBs in Ireland would have a small but meaningful effect on obesity. While such a tax would be perceived as affecting the whole population, from a health prospective the tax will predominantly affect younger adults who are the main consumers of SSBs.
Highlights
Some governments have recently shown a willingness to introduce taxes on unhealthy foods and drinks
As part of the Health Impact Assessment we were invited to model the effects of a 10% tax on Sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) in Ireland, and it is these results that we present here [25]
Energy intake We estimate that a 10% tax on SSBs will result in a mean reduction in energy intake of 2.1 kcal/person/day (15 kcal/week, 770 kcal/year) (Table 1)
Summary
We used price elasticity estimates to calculate the effect of a 10% SSB tax on SSB purchases and consumption. The age and sex specific estimates of the impact of the tax on obesity and overweight were used to calculate an overall (unadjusted) population estimate for the impact of the tax on obesity and overweight This (unadjusted) estimate was adjusted to allow for the greater prevalence of obesity or overweight when measured compared to that based on self-reported data. Modelling The 10% tax combined with the pass on rate of 90% was used to estimate the price rise which was combined with the own-price elasticity estimate of −0.9 to estimate the change in purchasing (and consumption) of SSBs. Changes in calorie consumption The same percentage change in consumption was applied to all age and income groups. Estimates of change in obesity and overweight prevalence by income group were weighted according to the age and sex distribution of the Irish population.
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
