Abstract
The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes to address obesity. Thailand has just launched the new tax rates for SSB in 2017; however, the existing tax rate is not as high as the 20% recommended by the WHO. The objective for this study was to estimate the impacts of an SSB tax on body mass index (BMI) and obesity prevalence in Thailand under three different scenarios based on existing SSB and recommended tax rates. A base model was built to estimate the impacts of an SSB tax on SSB consumption, energy intake, BMI, and obesity prevalence. Literature review was conducted to estimate pass on rate, price elasticity, energy compensation, and energy balance to weight change. Different tax rates (11%, 20% and 25%) were used in the model. The model assumed no substitution effects, model values were based on international data since there was no empirical Thai data available. Differential effects by income groups were not estimated. When applying 11%, 20%, and 25% tax rates together with 100% pass on rate and an -1.30 own-price elasticity, the SSB consumption decreased by 14%, 26%, and 32%, respectively. The 20% and 25% price increase in SSB price tended to reduce higher energy intake, weight status and BMI, when compared with an 11% increase in existing price increase of SSB. The percentage changes of obesity prevalence of 11%, 20% and 25% SSB tax rates were estimated to be 1.73%, 3.83%, and 4.91%, respectively. A higher SSB tax (20% and 25%) was estimated to reduce consumption and consequently decrease obesity prevalence. Since Thailand has already endorsed the excise tax structure, the new excise tax structure for SSB should be scaled up to a 20% or 25% tax rate if the SSB consumption change does not meet a favourable goal.
Highlights
Obesity is increasing in all countries including Thailand
When applying 11%, 20%, and 25% tax rates together with 100% pass on rate and an -1.30 own-price elasticity, the sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) consumption decreased by 14%, 26%, and 32%, respectively
Since Thailand has already endorsed the excise tax structure, the new excise tax structure for SSB should be scaled up to a 20% or 25% tax rate if the SSB consumption change does not meet a favourable goal
Summary
The prevalence of obesity among Thai adults has increased significantly from 28% to 33% in men, and from 41% to 42% in women, between 2008 and 2014 [1]. A similar obesity trend can be observed among Thai children under 5 years where the prevalence increased from 6.9% in 2005 [2] to 8.2% in 2015 [3]. SSB consumption in Thailand continues to increase among children, from 8.7% in 2003 to 17.2% in 2008–2009, and adults, from 5.1% to 7.9% in the corresponding period [8]. In 2015, the sales volume was as large as 4,100 million litres, and it was forecasted that the sales of SSB would be increased to 22% by 2020 [9]
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