Abstract
Biodiesel produced from woody oil plants is considered a green substitute for fossil fuels. However, a potential negative impact of growing woody oil plants on a large scale is the introduction of highly invasive species into susceptible regions. In this study, we examined the potential invasion risk of woody oil plants in China’s protected areas under future climate conditions. We simulated the current and future potential distributions of three invasive woody oil plants, Jatropha curcas, Ricinus communis, and Aleurites moluccana, under two climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) up to 2050 using species distribution models. Protected areas in China that will become susceptible to these species were then identified using a spatial overlay analysis. Our results showed that by 2050, 26 and 41 protected areas would be threatened by these invasive woody oil plants under scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively. A total of 10 unique forest ecosystems and 17 rare plant species could be potentially affected. We recommend that the invasive potential of woody oil plants be fully accounted for when developing forest-based biodiesel, especially around protected areas.
Highlights
Forest-based bioenergy has attracted worldwide attention due to its potential to mitigate climate change and a number of co-benefits, such as the provision of raw materials, soil and water conservation, and revenue generation in rural areas[1,2,3]
J. curcas has been chosen by the State Forestry Administration (SFA) as one of the six species to be planted on a large scale[25]
Our results show that the suitable habitats of the three woody oil plant species may shift to the north or northwest under future climate conditions
Summary
Forest-based bioenergy has attracted worldwide attention due to its potential to mitigate climate change and a number of co-benefits, such as the provision of raw materials, soil and water conservation, and revenue generation in rural areas[1,2,3]. Increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2 and global surface temperature as well as altered precipitation patterns will influence plant physiological processes such as photosynthesis and water use efficiency, which can change the growth, development[16] and plants’ distribution ranges[17]. Studies have shown that the distribution ranges of some invasive woody plants used for bioenergy production might increase in response to climate change. Sebifera, an invasive species used as a bioenergy plant in the United States, could spread 200 km northward of its current distribution range under a scenario of a 2 °C temperature rise by 2050, which would pose invasion risks to many ecosystems[20]. At the same time, such species will be subjected to the influence of climate change These factors can potentially contribute to the invasion of a woody oil plant species into new ecosystems if it has invasive traits. An assessment of the invasive potential of woody oil plants under current and future climates is urgently needed
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