Adjusting the protected areas on the Tibetan Plateau under changing climate

Abstract

The intensifying climate change crisis threatens the distribution within ecosystems and their function. Protected areas should incorporate the changing climate into planning to improve the effectiveness of biological conservation, particularly for biodiversity hotspots facing fast climate change. In this study, we investigated the climate-smart planning for protected areas in the Tibetan Plateau, known as the Third Pole, under climate change scenarios. These areas comprise unique ecosystems and three biodiversity hotspots of the world. The Species distribution model and carbon model with a systematic conservation planning tool (Marxan) were coupled in a unified framework. The economic costs (population) and climate costs (climate velocity, namely, a metric reflecting the impacts of climate change on species shifts) were input into the Marxan model to conduct hierarchical planning and further identify the areas functioning as species conservation priority areas or climate refugia under different climate scenarios. Results showed that nearly 10 % of the existing protected areas would suffer from rapid climate change in the future, leading to climate space loss in current protected areas by more than 20 %. The hierarchical planning realized relatively low economic and climate costs but left 58 % gap areas outside current conservation network. Therefore, six adjustable areas in the eastern and southern Tibetan Plateau, particularly in the margins of the plateau, were identified as: the gap areas (1) adjacent to the southwest of Qilian Mountains, (2) on the southeast of the headwaters of the Yellow River, (3) on the southeast of the headwaters of the Lancang River, (4) in Zayu and Mêdog, (5) connecting Mount Qomolangma Nature Reserve and Middle Reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo Valley—the Black-necked Cranes Nature Reserve, and (6) in the northwest of Zanda. These areas were proved to perform complex ecological functions under future climate scenarios. Our findings emphasize the necessity to account for climate impacts on protected area planning. The framework can help enhance the ability of the Tibetan Plateau as ecological security barrier and guide the climate-smart design of protected areas in China.