The potential impact of enhanced diagnostic techniques for tuberculosis driven by HIV: a mathematical model

Abstract

To explore the potential impact of enhanced tuberculosis (TB) diagnostic techniques as a TB control strategy in an adult population with high HIV prevalence. A compartmental difference-equation model of TB/HIV was developed using parameter estimates from the literature. The impact of five TB control interventions (rapid molecular testing, mycobacterial culture, community-wide and HIV-targeted active case finding, and highly active antiretroviral therapy) on TB incidence, prevalence, and mortality was modeled in a steady-state population with an HIV prevalence of 17% and annual TB incidence of 409 per 100 000. Sensitivity analyses assessed the influence of each model parameter on the interventions' mortality impact. Enhanced diagnostic techniques (rapid molecular testing or culture) are each projected to reduce TB prevalence and mortality by 20% or more, an impact similar to that of active case-finding in 33% of the general community and greater than the effect achievable by case-finding or antiretroviral treatment efforts in HIV-positive patients alone. The projected impact of enhanced diagnostics on TB incidence (< 10% reduction) is smaller. The impact of TB diagnostics is sensitive to the quality of existing diagnostic standards and the level of access to diagnostic services, but is robust across a wide range of population parameters including HIV and TB incidence. Enhanced TB diagnostic techniques may have substantial impact on TB morbidity and mortality in HIV-endemic regions. As TB rates continue to increase in these areas, enhanced diagnostic techniques merit further consideration as TB control strategies.