The Potential Distribution Prediction of the Forestry Pest Cyrtotrachelus buqueti (Guer) Based on the MaxEnt Model across China

Abstract

Exploring the geographical distribution of forestry pests is crucial for formulating pest management strategies. Cyrtotrachelus buqueti (Guer) stands out as one of the primary pests among China’s forestry hazards. This study employs the MaxEnt model, along with 19 bioclimatic variables and habitat characteristics, to predict the current and future distribution of C. buqueti under three typical emission scenarios for 2050 and 2070 (2.6 W/m2 (SSP1-2.6), 7.0 W/m2 (SSP3-7.0), and 8.5 W/m2 (SSP5-8.5)). Among the 19 bioclimatic variables, BIO 14 (precipitation of the driest month), BIO 8 (mean temperature of the wettest quarter), Elev, slope, and aspect were identified as significant contributors. These five variables are critical environmental factors affecting the suitability of habitats for C. buqueti and are representative of its potential habitat. The results indicate that C. buqueti predominantly inhabits southern regions such as Chongqing, Guizhou, Yunnan, Sichuan, Guangxi, Shaanxi, Hubei, Hainan, and Taiwan. Among them, Chongqing, Guizhou, and Yunnan are the primary distribution areas of high suitability. In the future, the centroid’s movement direction will generally shift southward, with an expansion trend observed in the distribution areas of each province. This study enhances researchers’ understanding of forestry pest dynamics and promotes proactive management strategies to mitigate their impact on forest ecosystems and agricultural productivity.