The Possibility of Using the Northern Sea Route in the Light of Climate Change Scenarios

Abstract

This chapter discusses the use of the Northern Sea Route in the light of climate change scenarios. A comparison of SRES scenarios shows that changes in air temperature are different in different scenarios. This has specific consequences for the expected changes in the extent of ice cover in the Arctic. The chapter presents an analysis of maps showing temperature changes in space and time. Based on this analysis, the extent of ice cover may be expected to diminish in the Arctic Ocean along the Northeast Passage, while along the Northwest Passage one should expect ice conditions to remain difficult and unfavourable to the development of maritime shipping. Satellite observations conducted after the year 2000 prove that the actual climate changes in the winter season are in accordance with the most extreme scenarios. There is a considerable discrepancy in ice extent in the Arctic arrived on the basis of existing models. This discrepancy is illustrated in a sample ice cover map. The results of these models make it impossible to predict the start and end date of a voyage. No significant changes are noticed in navigation prospects in the years 2006–2015 based on RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The author states, among others, that navigation options for vessels with low ice classes or without ice classes are severely limited. Only vessels with high ice classes are able to navigate slightly further off the Russian coast. There is, however, a significant increase in the possibility of general vessel traffic in the years 2040–2059. Contrary to popular opinion regarding the all-year-round ice-free navigation becoming possible in the middle of the twenty-first century, models of ice extent changes in the Arctic suggest that navigation is indeed likely to become possible for vessels with low ice classes or without ice classes, but only in September. The chapter provides a detailed discussion of a contentious issue concerning a potential increase in the number of stormy days, which is expected to occur as a result of further warming of the Arctic.