The possibility and scenarios of petroleum′s substitution

Abstract

Although petroleum will still be holding the predominating position in the global energy mix in the near future, it is more than likely that petroleum will be replaced in the transportation industry with the sustainable innovation of materials and technologies in the energy field. Certainly, the urgent and ever-increasing human demand on protecting ecological environment is also a crucial driving factor. The possible replacing approaches expected may include: (1) Electric vehicles. Based on more efficient energy storage technologies, electric vehicles will realize the replacement of fuel cars at a large scale before 2030. (2) Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. With the development of cheap and efficient preparation, storage and transportation of hydrogen, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will hopefully bring a revolution on transportation means and probably lead humans to enter an era of hydrogen economy around 2030–2050. (3) Nuclear fusion energy. Based on the promising mini reactor and micro nuclear battery technologies, vehicles with a nuclear fusion device will probably take the dominant position in transportation around 2050–2060. Although there might be some unpredictable uncertainties with the above kinds of clean energy, the trend that petroleum will be extensively replaced in transportation industry exhibits a strong momentum and is inevitable. Petroleum fuel will eventually be destined to become the raw chemical materials.