The population dynamics of Northeast Arctic cod (Gadus morhua) through two decades: an analysis based on survey data

Abstract

We analyse the population dynamics of Northeast Arctic cod (Gadus morhua) by applying statistical population models to 22 years of research survey data on abundance, length, and maturation. The models for abundance and individual length are selected using Akaike's information criterion (AICC). Survival of 2- to 4-year-old cod was found to be negatively related to the abundance of cod relative to its preferred prey, capelin (Mallotus villosus), likely the result of increased cannibalism from older cod when there is a lack of capelin. Growth up to age 4 decreases with abundance and increases with sea temperature and the North Atlantic Oscillation index, whereas growth from age 4 to age 8 decreases with increasing cod–capelin ratio. The statistical models were combined in a dynamic age-structured model, coupling the dynamics of abundance and body length (reproduction depends on body length, and length growth is influenced by abundance). Simulations using this model are able to recreate the main abundance patterns of each age group for 1982–2002. The model's ability to predict changes in the abundance of spawners appeared to be most limited by our ability to predict survival of 3- to 6-year-old immature cod.