A review of the contributions of fisheries and climate variability to contrasting dynamics in two Arcto-boreal Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) stocks: Persistent high productivity in the Barents Sea and collapse on the Newfoundland and Labrador Shelf

Abstract

Stocks of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) across the North Atlantic and adjacent seas have been fished intensively for years, and many are now severely depleted. In order to promote recovery and sustainable harvesting, it is essential to understand factors that have contributed to the declines and to variability in rates of recovery. Considerable insight may be gleaned by comparing and contrasting the histories of the Northeast Arctic (NEA) cod in the Barents Sea – Svalbard area of the northeast Atlantic and the “northern cod” on the Newfoundland and Labrador (NL) shelf in the northwest Atlantic. These two stocks, which were among the 3 largest cod stocks during the middle of the 20th century, are Arcto-boreal, and have many species of prey and predators in common. The biomass of NEA cod has varied considerably over time, and in 2009 was a little above 60% of its maximum observed level, which occurred in the late 1940s and early 1950s. In contrast, the biomass of NL cod decreased steadily from the early 1960s to the late 1970s, increased somewhat during the 1980s, and crashed during the early 1990s to an extremely low level, at which it remained for a decade before showing recent indications of improvement. Although both stocks were influenced by similar changes in harvesting strategies and environmental circumstances, both biotic and abiotic, there are two events which stand out as being particularly influential. First, crises developed in the management of both stocks in the late 1980s. For NEA cod, the crisis was environmental, caused by the collapse of capelin (Mallotus villosus), the main food for adult cod, whereas for NL cod the crisis was caused by a sudden large reduction in scientific perception of stock size. The difference in response to these crises strongly influenced subsequent stock dynamics. Catches of NEA cod were reduced considerably, preventing severe overharvesting of the cod that at that time experienced low productivity, whereas catches of NL cod were reduced only a little, contributing to escalating fishing mortality. The second event followed directly upon the first. The North Atlantic Oscillation index, which had been increasingly positive since the early 1970s, became strongly so during the early 1990s, creating favourable environmental conditions (warm water) in the Barents Sea and highly unfavourable conditions (cold water and extensive ice cover) on the Newfoundland–Labrador Shelf. The NEA stock recovered quickly, whereas the NL stock collapsed. The NEA cod has remained highly productive to this date, whereas the NL cod remained very unproductive for a decade, primarily because of high mortality, most of which appears to have been natural.