The political future of Burma revisited: An historical geography and review of the current situation∗

Abstract

Abstract In 1962 Edmund Leach wrote a paper entitled The Political Future of Burma in which he attempted to indicate ‘most of the developments’ that could be expected up to 1990. Burma was already in the hands of the military and he was pessimistic about what would happen in the longer term: ‘Who can deny the likelihood that the political (as distinct from the economic) scene in the Rangoon of 2062 will be very much like that which we can observe today?’ His predictions have proved to be remarkably accurate. In this review the material presented by Leach is updated. It is argued that although much has happened that he did not anticipate such as the intervention of Chinese and Thai business interests and international investment in oil exploration, if anything these factors have ensured that things have remained the same. There is little likelihood in the near future of any radical change for the better.