Abstract
There is a long-standing debate in academic and policymaking circles about the normative merits and economic effects of a universal basic income (UBI). However, existing literature does not sufficiently address the question of which factors are associated with individual support for a UBI. While a large literature in political economy has focused on individual preferences for existing welfare state benefits, it has not analysed the case of a UBI. Using the eighth wave of the European Social Survey (ESS), this article seeks to remedy this gap by analysing individual support for a UBI in 21 European countries. The findings from logistic regression analyses with country fixed effects are partly consistent with the expectations of previous social policy and political economy literatures. Younger, low-income, left-leaning individuals and the unemployed are more likely to support a UBI. Individuals with positive views of benefit recipients and/or high trust in political institutions are also more supportive, while anti-immigration attitudes are associated with lower support. By contrast, the patterns across occupations are mixed and male respondents appear slightly more supportive. Trade union membership is not statistically significant, perhaps because of contradictory effects: unions typically support new welfare state policies but they also have a key role in many existing welfare state schemes and may worry about individuals’ attachment to the labour market. At the cross-national level, support tends to be higher where benefit activation is more pronounced and unemployment benefits less generous. These results suggest one possible reason why countries with high support for a UBI have not introduced it: the mixed support among the left means a pro-UBI coalition has to draw on right-wing voters who may support it only with lower taxes and/or extensive replacement of welfare state benefits, which in turn may further alienate parts of the left.
Highlights
There is a long-standing debate in both academic and policymaking circles about the merits and feasibility of a universal basic income (UBI)
The relationship is positive and statistically significant when controlling for relevant individual characteristics and it is the same if we use instead overall conditionality of the benefit system as a second alternative proxy for activation (Figure A56). These findings suggest that individuals are ceteris paribus more supportive of a UBI in countries with comparatively less generous unemployment benefit schemes that activate recipients with conditions and sanctions
Using the 2016 wave of the European Social Survey (ESS), this article represents a first step in addressing a joint gap in the basic income and political economy of welfare state preferences literatures
Summary
There is a long-standing debate in both academic and policymaking circles about the merits and feasibility of a universal basic income (UBI). We still know comparatively little about public opinion on this scheme, and in particular, the political economy factors that are associated with individual support for a UBI. This is surprising given the large political economy and comparative social policy literatures devoted to understanding individual-level preferences for existing welfare state policies (Clegg, 2007; Emmenegger et al, 2012, 2015; FernandesAlbertos and Manzano, 2016; Häusermann et al, 2013, 2016; Iversen and Soskice, 2001; Rehm, 2009, 2011; Rueda, 2007; Schwander, 2019; Schwander and Häusermann, 2013; Vlandas, 2013c). This article aims to confront this political economy literature with the case of a UBI to shed light on the conflict lines around a UBI scheme within the electorate
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