The political economy of fossil fuel production in the Post-Paris Era: Critically evaluating Nationally Determined Contributions

Abstract

Fossil fuels account for approximately 86% of global greenhouse gas emissions over the last decade, yet the Paris Agreement makes no mention of fossil fuels. Still, fossil fuel-producing countries have incentives to plan for decreasing global demand if the Paris Agreement is successful. We assess how fossil fuel-producing states respond to these and other incentives. We compare the most recent Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) of all available fossil fuel-producing countries and the European Commission (n = 70) to analyze how countries articulate policies concerning the production of fossil fuels. We then compare these components of NDCs with data on the scale, cost, and emissions intensity of countries' fossil fuel production. We find that despite some theoretical expectations to the contrary, most wealthy fossil fuel-producing countries have taken limited measures to plan for declining supply of fossil fuels in their NDCs, preferring instead to focus on production-related emissions. However, our study finds preliminary evidence that countries that rely on imports to supplement domestic production are more receptive to production decline than fossil fuel exporters. Our findings reinforce the need for attention to both production and consumption in global climate governance.