The plankton multiplier—positive feedback in the greenhouse

Abstract

The plankton multiplier is a positive feedback mechanism linking the greenhouse effect and biological pump (Woods.J.D., Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, 1990). As pollution increases the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, the enhanced greenhouse effect induces radiative forcing of the ocean, which diminishes the depth of winter convection, reducing the annual resupply of nutrients to the euphotic zone and therefore the annual primary production. That weakens the biological pump, which contributes to oceanic uptake of CO2,. As the ocean takes up less CO2, more remains in the atmosphere, accelerating the rise in radiative forcing. We have used a mathematical model of the upper ocean ecosystem, based on the Lagrangian Ensemble method, to estimate the sensitivity of the biological pump to radiative forcing, which lies at the heart of the plankton multiplier. We conclude that increasing radiative forcing by 5 W m− (equivalent to doubling atmospheric CO2) reduces the deep flux of paniculate carbon by 10%. That sensitivity is sufficient to produce significant positive feedback in the greenhouse. It means that the plankton multiplier will increase the rate of climate change in the 21st century. It also suggests that the plankton multiplier is the mechanism linking the Milankovich effect to the enhanced greenhouse effect that produces global warming at the end of ice ages.