Climatic Change | VOL. 38

A Bayesian statistical analysis of the enhanced greenhouse effect

Publication Date Jan 1, 1998


This paper demonstrates that there is a robust statistical relationship between the records of the global mean surface air temperature and the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide over the period 1870-1991. As such, the enhanced greenhouse effect is a plausible explanation for the observed global warming. Long term natural variability is another prime candidate for explaining the temperature rise of the last century. Analysis of natural variability from paleo-reconstructions, however, shows that human activity is so much more likely an explanation that the earlier conclusion is not refuted. But, even if one believes in large natural climatic variability, the odds are invariably in favour of the enhanced greenhouse effect. The above conclusions hold for a range of statistical models, including one that is capable of describing the stabilization of the global mean temperature from the 1940s to the 1970s onwards. This model is also shown to be otherwise statistically adequate. The estimated climate sensitivity is about 3.8°C with a standard deviation of 0.9°C, but depends slightly on which model is preferred and how much natural variability is allowed. These estimates neglect, however, the fact that carbon dioxide is but one of a number of greenhouse gases and that sulphate aerosols may well have dampened warming. Acknowledging the fact that carbon dioxide is used as a proxy for all human induced changes in radiative forcing brings a lot of additional uncertainty. Prior knowledge on both climate sensitivity and radiative...


Natural Variability Climate Sensitivity Global Mean Surface Air Temperature Strong Positive Skewness Atmospheric Concentration Of Carbon Dioxide Changes In Radiative Forcing Enhanced Greenhouse Effect Human Induced Changes Prior Knowledge Carbon Dioxide

Round-ups are the summaries of handpicked papers around trending topics published every week. These would enable you to scan through a collection of papers and decide if the paper is relevant to you before actually investing time into reading it.

Climate change Research Articles published between Jan 23, 2023 to Jan 29, 2023

R DiscoveryJan 30, 2023
R DiscoveryArticles Included:  3

Climate change adaptation has shifted from a single-dimension to an integrative approach that aligns with vulnerability and resilience concepts. Adapt...

Read More

Coronavirus Pandemic

You can also read COVID related content on R COVID-19

R ProductsCOVID-19


Creating the world’s largest AI-driven & human-curated collection of research, news, expert recommendations and educational resources on COVID-19

COVID-19 Dashboard

Disclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on “as is” basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The Copyright Law.