The Philippine Economy under Aquino: New Hopes, Old Problems

Abstract

For anyone with an interest in a return to economic growth and political normality in the Philippines, the events since February 1986 must be viewed with an overwhelming sense of relief. In January of that year, on the eve of Marcos's last, ill-fated national election, the immediate prospects appeared grim: an economy contracting sharply; an ailing but still quite powerful president; and a steady slide into violence and political instability. Indeed, there was every prospect of a return to authoritarian rule through the reimposition of martial law, which probably would have taken the form of a brutal regime that would have lacked the capacity to engineer economic revival and political consensus. Contrary to widely held expectations at the beginning of 1986, the Marcos era ended abruptly. The sudden change in regime offered the first real prospect for economic revival after three years of deep economic recession and a much longer period of political division. Since February 1986, the new government's record of achievement has been painfully slow in some areas, probably misguided in others, and marred by periodic episodes of internal dissension and military threat. But its fundamental achievements have been to arrest the economic decay and to restore a measure of trust in Philippine institutions (particularly the legislature and the press) and thus some hope for the future. Any assessment of the record of the Aquino administration must recognize the importance of these two key factors.