The Performance of Geoinformation Software for Fire Weather Forecast

Abstract

The survey suggests targeted geoinformation software for rating and predicting fire danger for vegetation caused by natural and natural-anthropogenic forcers that have been observed for a long time. The study applies weather fire danger indices represented by Nesterov and their varieties in the territory of the Russian Federation. The MySQL 5 open-source relational database management system is used for data storing/holding. Spatial processing and data verification are carried out using a verification tool called MapInfo Professional geographic information system and Delphi 2010 integrated development environment. A series of electronic maps was constructed during a fire season according to computer experiments in order to verify the reliability of the fire danger forecast in spring-and-fall and summer-time, calculate statistical criteria rates, assess a permissible error in the forecast of weather effects and a probability of forest fires. The values obtained are reported in the paper. The authors suggest the criteria and methods for assessing and predicting the forest fire danger according to Nesterov index with various charts for using actual and forecasted weather data. The researchers also determine system requirements for the geoinformation software; develop the structure of a multidimensional relational database and processing algorithms of meteorological data and vegetation fire data. The authors also spot probable fires in the centers of forestry areas in the territory of the Jewish Autonomous Region every day within the fire danger season. The authors found out a high confident present day forecast and the one for the next day according to the short-term forecast available in the whole territory of the Russian Federation.