The path to Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine: Moscow’s framing of conflict and cooperation with the West under Putin’s rule

Abstract

ABSTRACT This article explores the relationship between the evolution of Russia’s foreign policy narrative (RN) and the breakdown of its relations with the West. Even though the West is a rather fluid and nebulous concept, it is central to Russian foreign policy and primarily encompasses the EU and the United States (US), but also other countries like Canada, Japan or Australia that are framed by the RN as key supporters of US leadership in the world order. Relations between the West and Russia veered towards conflict and lack of engagement following the start of the Ukraine crisis, with various voices indicating that the world had stepped into a new Cold War. In this article, a curated collection of key interviews and op-eds from the Russian President was coded and examined for frame analysis for the period between the start of 2000 (when Vladimir Putin first became President) to the end of 2021. This study finds that the RN discursively constructs the context within which the Kremlin made the fateful decision to invade Ukraine in February 2022.