The path to 2060: Saudi Arabia's long-term pathway for GHG emission reduction

Abstract

Saudi Arabia, as part of its Saudi Green Initiative, has announced its goal to achieve net zero green-house gas emissions by 2060. This ambitious target underscores the nation's dedication to addressing climate change. However, there is a significant gap in comprehensive analysis regarding the long-term effects of Saudi Arabia's climate policies and their collective contribution towards the net-zero objective. This study endeavors to bridge this gap through a detailed examination using the GCAM-KSA, a specialized version of the Global Change Analysis Model tailored for Saudi Arabia, employing a multi-sectoral methodology that integrates economic, energy, and land use systems within a coherent framework to assess the impact of climate policies on GHG emissions. Our analysis reveals that reaching net-zero GHG emissions by 2060 is a complex challenge requiring concerted efforts across all sectors of the economy. While transitioning to low-carbon electricity and improving energy efficiency offer considerable emission reductions, fully decarbonizing the industrial and transportation sectors poses a significant hurdle. Our findings suggest that Saudi Arabia must triple its emission reduction commitments in its next Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) update to align with its 2060 net-zero goal. Early action and increased ambition could avoid the chances of getting locked into the high emission assets and give enough time to transform the energy system. Furthermore, the adoption and integration of Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies are identified as crucial for offsetting residual emissions, especially in sectors that might continue to rely on fossil fuels.