The Paradox of Analysing Elite Politics under Jiang

Abstract

What has been missing in analyses of elite politics under Jiang Zemin are attempts to adduce the formal rules of the game or the norms of elite politics during Jiang's tenure and how those practices relate to the way elite politics was played out in the past and how these practices might evolve in the future. There are a number of reasons why elite politics has not been as central to thinking about Chinese politics as it was in the past. These include the relative lack of drama in elite politics; the still quite opaque and closed nature of elite political decision-making; and concerns, at least in the political science profession in the United States, that the study of elite politics is not sufficiently theoretical to merit appointments and promotions. As a result, systematic, sustained discussions and debates about the nature of Chinese elite politics have been rare to non-existent since the special China Journal issue of 1995. It is certainly true that politics under Jiang has not been characterized by the kinds of momentous (and often calamitous) developments associated particularly with Mao and to a lesser extent Deng. The Chinese political system, mirroring society at large, has become more complex, stratified and institutionalized than ever before in the history of the People's Republic of China. Aside from the grayness of Jiang-his total lack of charisma-the space for the dramatic in Chinese politics has significantly declined. Arguably only in the realms of changes to the political system and policy toward Taiwan is it possible to even imagine dramatic initiatives coming from above. In most other areas, basic trends have been established, and there seems to be a widely shared consensus within the Party elite: about the need to remain the ruling party; to protect Chinese sovereignty; to maintain social stability; to promote economic development; to modernize the military; and for China to be seen as a responsible member of the international community.