The Pandemic Challenge for the Middle East Vector of “One Belt-One Road”: A View from Beijing

Abstract

The article analyzes the Chinese approach to risk assessment for the “One Belt, One Road” Initiative (OBOR) in the context of the 2020 global pandemic. Applying for the Middle Eastern case, the authors reveal the contradictory impact of the pandemic crisis on the OBOR international cooperation. Chinese experts consider the main risks for the OBOR Middle East projects implementation are following: increase in the total external debt of the region’s states; significant reduction of their financial resources; interest decrease of international financial institutions in investment support of the OBOR Initiative as a whole; as well as deterioration of the foreign policy atmosphere for certain regional actors. At the same time, according to Beijing, along with the forced decline of China’s economic activity in the Middle East, the pandemic challenge has created new opportunities and perspectives for Chinese regional projects, and also allowed Beijing to significantly expand the toolkit of so-called horizontal diplomacy to promote its integration initiative in this parts of the world. Particular attention is paid to the analysis of the risk management mechanisms developed by Beijing for the Middle East OBOR projects. Among the most significant achievements of Chinese policy in the Middle East during the pandemic is the promotion of the Health Silk Road and Digital Silk Road projects. In general, China’s Middle East policy in the context of the 2020 pandemic crisis has confirmed the high effectiveness of the basic principles of modern China’s foreign policy — pragmatism, flexibility, multi-vector approach, and so on. The study was carried out within the framework of a systematic approach and based on official documents and analytical materials of Chinese origin.