The outlook for fragile states

Abstract

The prospects for aid, growth and poverty reduction in fragile states are gloomy on the whole, apart from some outliers. The long trend of growth in ODA to fragile states is at serious risk given the current fiscal crunch in OECD countries. About half of fragile states are expected to see a drop in programmable aid between 2012 and 2015. This ODA fall is likely to occur at the same time as poverty is becoming increasingly concentrated in fragile states. Countries of particular concern are those that: 1) are already under-aided and are likely to see a further fall in aid, such as Niger; 2) combine projections of falling aid with slow growth, such as Sudan, Chad and Kosovo; or 3) are highly dependent on aid but are likely to see aid levels fall, such as Afghanistan. Middle-income fragile states will also face specific challenges that will require continued attention. Rapid changes related to demographics, technology and climate change can generate collective action and social change or lead to “perfect storms” (crises combining many dimensions). High fertility rates and large proportions of youth will continue to drive demand for social services, jobs and political participation. The spread of technological innovation – especially mobile phones – may be one of the most consequential changes affecting fragile states in the decade ahead, providing new means of information, communication and collective action. Climate change and environmental degradation will affect fragile states more directly and severely than other countries.