The outlook for energy demand to 2010

Abstract

This paper examines the likely developments in world energy markets up to 2010. It is expected that world energy demand will continue to grow steadily and fossil fuels will account for about 90% of total demand to 2010. Moreover, a structural shift in the shares of different regions in world energy demand is likely to occur and the OECD share of world energy demand will fall. World oil demand is projected to rise from 70 million barrels per day at present to between 92 and 97 million barrels per day in 2010. OECD oil import dependence is expected to increase. One of the major results of the projections presented here is the strong increase of energy demand in the dynamic Asian regions, with primary energy demand up by 5% a year to 2010 – a substantial market gain in total world demand and 45%#37; of the increase between now and then. The share of these regions could thus exceed a quarter of world energy demand by 2010. In absolute terms, total primary energy demand in China is expected to double over the projection period and the demand in East and South Asia to increase by more than that.