World Energy Beyond 2050

Abstract

Abstract Today's total world energy demand is near 200 million BOEPD, up five-fold from 1950; over 80% is supplied by fossil fuels and nearly 60% by oil and gas. Many forecasters believe oil and gas production will decline before mid-century, but population growth and economic development combine to drive energy demand ever upward. Dramatic changes must occur in both the nature and magnitude of the various sources of energy supply, and of the various natures of demand, beyond 2050. Yet, vast sources of energy exist. About 1.4×1019 BTU of solar radiation hits Earth's cross sectional area daily, 13,000 times current total energy use. Another 5 to 8×1014 BTU, roughly equal to current use, is conducted to Earth's surface daily from its interior. Einstein's equation assures that every pound of material on earth is equivalent to nearly 4×1013 BTU. Thus, the mass in each barrel of oil contains over 2 billion times more energy than is available by its combustion. Fully exploited as "atomic energy," 0.1 BOPD, about 4 gallons, could meet current total world energy demand. Major problems exist in effectively capturing, converting, storing, transporting, and utilizing these forms of energy while meeting society's diverse and changing economic, environmental, political, cultural, geographic, and aesthetic needs and desires. Development and application of technology, though difficult, is required and almost certainly achievable. This paper analyzes perceived world energy supply and demand beyond 2050, using a range of existing and new forecasts for fossil fuel availability and prospects for other forms of energy. Scenarios are developed for demand based on projected relationships between energy use and world economic and population growth. Responses to some earlier energy shortages are analyzed, and the pace and sweep of technological innovation needed are described in broad terms. Introduction Many forecasters predict an imminent shortage of oil and gas, which supply nearly 60% of the world's energy needs. A recent book1 even predicts world oil production will peak between 2004 and 2008, only 2 to 6 years from now, and then decline. Others have made similar predictions in recent years3,9,10, often based upon Hubbard's4 mathematical "curve fit" method for predicting future oil production peaks, a method that once worked well for the U.S. lower 48 states. In an older but more comprehensive long-term prediction by Bookout2, Figure 1, peak world oil production occurred in 2020. By contrast, in the latest EIA (U.S. DOE) forecast8, oil and gas production increases continuously and monotonically through 2020, the forecast period. Absent geopolitical or environmental constraints, current forecasts of early peaks in oil supply are likely as wrong as so many others have been since 1875 when the Pennsylvania Geological Society issued one of the first such warnings. Nonetheless, someday an actual physical limit, or "shortage" of oil and gas, and perhaps of coal, too, will be experienced, and even though this may not happen in the next two decades, it seems likely that it might occur at least by 2050, if population growth and economic development continue. One likely scenario is that a growing concern about global warming thought to be exacerbated by carbon dioxide released from burning fossil fuels may limit their use in the future. Hence, we must consider how to meet energy demand in the second half of this century, and prospects for coping with either diminished availability or use of fossil fuels. The term "shortage of fossil fuels" isn't entirely appropriate. In the real world, supply and demand are equal, forced so by price in a free market economy, or by government edict in an un-free one, or a combination of both. But temporary interruptions can and do cause genuine economic problems. A free and thriving market economy likely offers better assurances that emerging technologies will alleviate periods of economic pain resulting from spiking energy costs.