The origins of the anomalous warming in the California coastal ocean and San Francisco Bay during 2014–2016

Abstract

AbstractDuring 2014 exceptionally warm water temperatures developed across a wide area off the California coast and within San Francisco Bay (SFB) and persisted into 2016. Observations and numerical model output are used to document this warming and determine its origins. The coastal warming was mostly confined to the upper 100 m of the ocean and was manifested strongly in the two leading modes of upper ocean (0–100 m) temperature variability in the extratropical eastern Pacific. Observations suggest that the coastal warming in 2014 propagated into nearshore regions from the west while later indicating a warming influence that propagated from south to north into the region associated with the 2015–2016 El Niño event. An analysis of the upper ocean (0–100 m) heat budget in a Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) simulation confirmed this scenario. The results from a set of sensitivity runs with the model in which the lateral boundary conditions varied supported the conclusions drawn from the heat budget analysis. Concerning the warming in the SFB, an examination of the observations and the heat budget in an unstructured‐grid numerical model simulation suggested that the warming during the second half of 2014 and early 2016 originated in the adjacent California coastal ocean and propagated through the Golden Gate into the Bay. The finding that the coastal and Bay warming are due to the relatively slow propagation of signals from remote sources raises the possibility that such warming events may be predictable many months or even several seasons in advance.