Abstract
Transport studies are conducted for a better understanding of the actual mobility and for developing transport forecasting models to predict the future transport demand and the changes in travel patterns. Transport planning involves the decision-making process for potential improvements to a community’ s roadway infrastructure. The first transport models used to analyze globally the transport system requirements while nowadays models were rethought as a demand – supply interaction reflecting the correlation between transport and socio-economic development. The transport forecasting methodology use a four stage structure consisting of: trip generation, trip distribution, modal split, traffic assignment. In the second stage of the model, the generated trips for each zone are distributed to all other zones based on the choice of destination. The trip pattern is represented by means of an origin-destination (O-D) matrix. The Growth Factor Model and the Gravity Model are two methods to distribute trips among destinations. The two methods for developing the O-D Matrix are presented and criticized in this paper, showing the similarities and differences between them and highlighting the implications for rigorous determination of future transport demand. A case study is done to emphasize the differences between these models and their implications in carrying out transport studies.
Highlights
The knowledge of transport demand, both for passengers and freight, it is important because the correct dimensioning of the infrastructure capacity and of necessary investments depends on the level of this knowledge [1]
The Mobility Plan proposed by Bucharest Metropolitan Transport Association aims to create a complex public transport network to solve the actual congestion problems
The origin - destination matrix is obtained in the second stage of the 4-steps transport model
Summary
The knowledge of transport demand, both for passengers and freight, it is important because the correct dimensioning of the infrastructure capacity and of necessary investments depends on the level of this knowledge [1]. Classical measures to meet the need for mobility have been focused exclusively on the development of the road infrastructure that led to the occupation of the land, degrading the natural landscape, increasing the risk of accidents and attracting new traffic, which has again led to congestion and the process is cyclical until the extension of the road infrastructure is no longer possible [7]. This describes a false pattern of congestion elimination The traffic flows volumes cannot be determined because the modal split and the traffic assignment https://doi.org/10.10 51/matecconf /201929 006010 need to be done first, but it is an incipient measure of the traffic volume and an initial information on possible traffic congestion
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