The Optimal Vaccination Strategy to Control COVID-19: A Modeling Study Based on the Transmission Scenario in Wuhan City, China

Abstract

Background: The optimal vaccination is an essential public health strategy to control the pandemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). This study aims to simulate the optimal vaccination strategy to control the virus epidemic by developing an age-specific model based on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan City, China.Methods: An age-specific mathematical model based on the data of COVID-19 cases in Wuhan City from December 2, 2019 to March 16, 2020 was developed, with two scenarios for controlling transmission and reducing severity to estimate the effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination strategy.Findings: Before the lockdown of the Wuhan City, the highest transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 was among 14-44 years old (effective reproduction number, Reff = 4·28), followed by 14-44 to 45-64 years old (Reff = 2·61), and 14-44 to ≥ 65 years old (Reff = 1·69). We found that the first priority for controlling transmission should be to vaccinate nearly 90% individuals of 14-44 years old, followed by 90% individuals of 45-64 years old. However, the optimal vaccination strategy for reducing severity defined individuals ≥ 65 years old in vaccination priority groups, followed by 14-44 years old groups.Interpretation: The scenario analyses suggested that the optimal vaccination strategy aimed at controlling the transmission of COVID-19 might be to vaccinate about 90% of 15-44 years old individuals; while for reducing severity, the vaccination priority should focus on the older population. Furthermore, we also presented evidence about the heterogeneity of age-specific transmission and vaccination in different areas.Funding Statement: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the Science and Technology Program of Fujian Province.Declaration of Interests: The authors declare no competing interests.