The operational CMEMS wind wave forecasting system of the Black Sea

Abstract

ABSTRACT Accurate wind wave data is essential for ship navigation, safety at sea, and offshore energy production. Access to real-time and forecast wave data, with quality metrics, is vital for operational services. The Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) operational wave forecasting system of the Black Sea relies on the third-generation WAve Model (WAM). It offers a 1-day hindcast and 10-day forecast at 2.5 km spatial and 1-hour temporal resolutions. The model is driven by ECMWF IFS010 winds as well as surface currents and sea surface heights from a hydrodynamic model. The model's validation against satellite and buoy data indicates good overall performance. For two-year satellite significant wave heights, error statistics include a root mean square difference (RMSD) of 27 cm, a bias of – 16 cm, a scatter index of 0.22, and a correlation coefficient of 0.93. Wave buoy comparisons show a RMSD of 1.09 s for the TM02 period and a 30.5° standard deviation of the mean direction. The model performs well during storm events and provides reliable wave forecasts for up to four days, despite slightly underestimating the significant wave height. The driving wind fields generally perform well, but assessments reveal shortcomings along the coasts.