The ontogenesis of wheat under scenarios of increased air temperature in Italy : a simulation study

Abstract

Simulations of wheat development were used to evaluate the duration and variability of wheat development phases under current and future climates in Italy. The adaptation of different varieties to scenarios of increased temperature and potential changes in management were explored and assessment was made of the effect induced by climate change upon the workdays of the most important crop husbandry practices. The sensitivity of wheat development to arbitrary changes in temperature (+ 2 °C, + 4 °C) was considered in the first instance. The results obtained showed that an arbitrary increase in temperature reduced the duration of the phenological phases. Analyses made using composite time-dependent scenarios showed an increase in agricultural risk and a more pronounced reduction in the length of the development phases in southern and central Italy than in the northern part of the country. Development predictions, based on equilibrium 2 x CO2 scenarios, gave similar results but there were significant differences between the 2 x CO2 scenario results. Management analyses suggested that slow developing varieties are likely to be better suited than fast ones to a warming climate in northern and central Italy, while the opposite is likely to occur in the south. The combination of an increase in wheat development rate and a change in the amount of precipitation is likely to cause a general reduction in the number of days suitable for agricultural operations in northern Italy.