The occurrence and probabilistic risk assessment of 3-MCPDEs and GEs in infant formulas from Chinese market employing Monte Carlo simulation technique.

Abstract

3-monochloropropane-1,2-diol esters (3-MCPDEs) and glycidyl esters (GEs) are food contaminants and have arisen continuous attention due to their toxicity, especially towards infants. Current risk assessment of these contaminants was mostly employing deterministic approaches, lacking quantitative characterization of the likelihood, incidence, or severity of the risks involved. Herein, 3-MCPDE and GE levels in 46 representative infant formulas (IFs) from Chinese market were determined by GC-MS/MS. Then, combining the occurrence data and consumption data from China National Food Consumption Survey, the Monte Carlo simulation-based probabilistic model for risk assessment of 3-MCPDEs and GEs in IFs from Chinese market was established. The results showed that all P90 (90th percentiles) hazard quotient values were below 1, demonstrating 3-MCPDEs didn't pose health risks to most populations aged 0-36 months old. However, for 0-12 months old groups, P10 (10th percentiles) margin of exposure values were all below 25000, indicating GEs may pose potential risks to 10% of this group. Uncertainty analysis revealed that the probabilistic model had considered uncertainties of model input and distribution, and realized refined assessment. This study is the first report on probabilistic assessment of 3-MCPDEs and GEs in IFs, which also provided references for the formulation of related regulatory limits in China.