The November 2023 Grindavik dike injection in Iceland:  Implications for continental rifting, dike formation in extensional tectonic settings, and giant dike swarms

Abstract

A 15 km long dike formed rapidly in the Reykjanes Peninsula oblique rift on 10 November 2023 and propagated under the town of Grindavík.  From just before noon on 10 November until midnight, around 25 MW≥4 earthquakes occurred, two of which were of MW~5.2. Three-dimensional ground deformation is well resolved both temporally and spatially with dense Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) geodetic observations, which record cumulative displacements up to about 80 cm occurring mostly over 6 hours in the evening of 10 November and continuing at much reduced rates in the following days. Interferometric analysis of synthetic aperture radar images using Sentinel-1, COSMO-SkyMed, and ICEYE satellites records also well the dike deformation, which occurred simultaneously with deflation over the nearby central part of the Svartsengi volcanic system. Geodetic modelling, assuming uniform elastic host rock behavior, infers a dike volume of (130-139)×106 m3, with up to ~8 m dike opening, as well as some strike-slip shear motion. Deflation at Svartsengi in our model is best fit using a spherical point source with a volume decrease of (76-82)×106 m3up until 12 November. The temporal evolution of the dike opening was further modelled using hourly GNSS displacements, allowing better derivation of the temporal evolution of the flow rate into the dike and the contraction volume of the subsidence source. The maximum flow rate into the dike is inferred to be ~9500 m3/s, between 18:00 and 19:00 on November 10. We infer that the massive magma flow into the dike was established with only modest overpressure in the feeding magma body, a sufficiently large pathway opening at the boundary of the magma body, and pre-failure lowering of pressure along the pathway that had occurred through gradual build-up of high tensile stress over the previous eight centuries. This explains the unprecedented fast maximum magma flow rates that we infer. Such high flow rates provide insight into the formation of giant dike swarms under conditions of high tensile stress, and imply a high hazard potential for dike intrusions, considering their potential to transition into eruptions.