Abstract
Abstract. We studied contrasting glacier systems in continental (Orulgan, Suntar-Khayata and Chersky) mountain ranges, located in the region of the lowest temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere at the boundary of Atlantic and Pacific influences – and maritime ones (Kamchatka Peninsula) – under Pacific influence. Our purpose is to present a simple projection method to assess the main parameters of these glacier regions under climate change. To achieve this, constructed vertical profiles of mass balance (accumulation and ablation) based both on meteorological data for the 1950–1990s (baseline period) and ECHAM4 for 2049–2060 (projected period) are used, the latter – as a climatic scenario. The observations and scenarios were used to define the recent and future equilibrium line altitude and glacier terminus altitude level for each glacier system as well as areas and balance components. The altitudinal distributions of ice areas were determined for present and future, and they were used for prediction of glacier extent versus altitude in the system taking into account the correlation between the ELA and glacier-terminus level change. We tested two hypotheses of ice distribution versus altitude in mountain (valley) glaciers – "linear" and "non-linear". The results are estimates of the possible changes of the areas and morphological structure of northeastern Asia glacier systems and their mass balance characteristics for 2049–2060. Glaciers in the southern parts of northeastern Siberia and those covering small ranges in Kamchatka will likely disappear under the ECHAM4 scenario; the best preservation of glaciers will be on the highest volcanic peaks of Kamchatka. Finally, we compare characteristics of the stability of continental and maritime glacier systems under global warming.
Highlights
Our approach involves the projection of (1) equilibrium line altitude (ELA) because at this level it is possible to reconstruct accumulation by calculated ablation due to their equality here (e.g. Braithwaite and Raper, 2007), and (2) glacier terminus altitude because this is correlated with ELA change (e.g. Chinn et al, 2005)
We considered 17 glacier regions from the two different climate and relief regions of Russian Asia: Northeastern Siberia (7 systems), and the Kamchatka Peninsula (10 systems), using climatic data from the second half of the 20th century and applying climatic scenarios
In the SuntarKhayata and on Kronotsky Range, despite a high moisture supply, the mass balance will remain negative; that means the glacierization will not come into balance with climate and will persistently decline
Summary
Our approach involves the projection of (1) equilibrium line altitude (ELA) because at this level it is possible to reconstruct accumulation by calculated ablation due to their equality here (e.g. Braithwaite and Raper, 2007), and (2) glacier terminus altitude because this is correlated with ELA change (e.g. Chinn et al, 2005). Our approach involves the projection of (1) equilibrium line altitude (ELA) because at this level it is possible to reconstruct accumulation by calculated ablation due to their equality here Braithwaite and Raper, 2007), and (2) glacier terminus altitude because this is correlated with ELA change The projected ELA can be obtained as the intersection of the accumulation and ablation balance profiles for glacier systems (regions). The term “glacier system” is considered as a set of glaciers united by their common links with the environment: the same mountain system or archipelago location and similar atmospheric circulation patterns. For each glacier system the balance scheme (accumulation and ablation vertical profiles) is constructed from climate data.Here we present a simple method for projection of change of the glacier systems’ parameters and the application of this method for the region of northeastern Asia. We have chosen to study the continental glacier systems of northeastern Siberia-Orulgan (a part of Verkhonyansky Range in Fig. 1), the SuntarKhayata and Chersky ranges – and the maritime glacier systems of Kamchatka-Sredinniy and Kronotsky ranges, and the Kluchevskaya, Tolbechek, Chiveluch volcano groups (see Fig. 1 and Table 1)
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