Glacier systems response on climate change by the definite climatic scenario: northeast Russia

Abstract

In previous papers, we have presented a method for the assessment of the evolution of mountain glacier systems, in which various climate scenarios were used to study the response of glacier systems to climate change. The aim of this study is to assess the evolution of northeastern Russia glacier systems using output from the A-31 climate scenario, and to compare the responses of the different mountain glacier systems to the scenario. We used temperature and precipitation output from the A-31 scenario to assess future evolution of the glacier systems in the Chukchi and Kolyma highlands (for the projection period of 2011–2030), and the Orulgan, Suntar-Khayata, and Chersky ranges (for the projection period of 2041–2060). The paper provides a brief description of the general method that was used and more details on the data and methods used for each glacier system. Responses of glacier systems were analyzed on the basis of four parameters: mean glacier area, system mean altitudinal range, changes in equilibrium line altitude, and glacier area by the end of the projection period. The relationships between the factors received support an applicability of the A-31 scenario to the study of glacier system evolution. Citation: Ananicheva M D, Barry R. Glacier systems response on climate change by the definite chmatic scenario: northeast Russia. Adv Polar Sci, 2018, 29(1): 13-24, doi: 10.13679/j.advps.2018.1.00013