The Normal Risk Ovarian Screening Study (NROSS): Twenty-one year update.

Abstract

5522 Background: The Normal Risk Ovarian Screening Study (NROSS) tested a two-stage screening strategy in post-menopausal women at conventional hereditary risk where significantly rising CA125 prompted transvaginal sonography (TVS) and abnormal TVS prompted surgery to detect ovarian cancer. Methods: A total of 7,856 healthy postmenopausal women were screened annually for a total of 50,596 women-years in a single arm study ( NCT00539162 ). Serum CA125 was analyzed with the Risk of Ovarian Cancer Algorithm (ROCA) each year. If risk was normal ( < 1:2000), women returned in a year. If risk was elevated ( > 1:500), TVS was undertaken immediately and if risk was intermediate, CA125 was repeated in 3 months, risk recalculated, and the participant re-triaged. An average of 2% of participants were referred to TVS annually. Results: Thirty-four patients were referred for operations detecting 15 ovarian cancers and 2 borderline tumors with 12 in early stage (I-II). In addition, 7 endometrial cancers were detected with 6 in early stage. Thus, the positive predictive value (PPV) of the NROSS trial was 50% (17/34) for detecting ovarian cancer and 74% (25/34) for any cancer, far exceeding the minimum acceptable study endpoint of 10% PPV. As 4 ovarian cancers and 2 borderline tumors were diagnosed within a year of each participant’s last normal risk, the sensitivity for detecting ovarian and borderline cancer was 74% (17/23) and 70% of ROCA-detected cases (12/17) were in stage I-II. NROSS screening reduced incidence of late stage (III-IV) disease by 34% compared to the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS) control arm and by 30% compared to US SEER values. Results of our NROSS trial contrast dramatically with those of the recently reported UKCTOCS that showed only a modest 14% early-stage shift, underlying a lack of reduction in mortality. Across multiple randomized trials of mammography, those trials that demonstrated at least a 20% late-stage incidence reduction had a significant mortality reduction, whereas those with less of a stage shift did not. Conclusions: An elevated ROCA, characterized by a significantly rising CA125, prompted referral of 2% of participants to TVS each year and required only 2 operations to detect each case of ovarian cancer, indicating that CA125 used in this way is adequately specific for effective screening. While the NROSS trial was not powered to detect reduced mortality, the high specificity, PPV and marked stage shift support further development of this strategy. Clinical trial information: NCT00539162 .