Screening for ovarian cancer: imaging challenges and opportunities for improvement.

Commentary on 'Performance of ultrasound as a second line test to serum CA125 in ovarian cancer screening'.

Screening for Familial Ovarian Cancer: A Ray of Hope and a Light to Steer by

Ovarian cancer has a high case-fatality ratio, with most women not diagnosed until the disease is in its advanced stages. The United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS) is a randomised controlled trial designed to assess the effect of screening on mortality. This report summarises the outcome of the prevalence (initial) screen in UKCTOCS. Between 2001 and 2005, a total of 202 638 post-menopausal women aged 50-74 years were randomly assigned to no treatment (control; n=101 359); annual CA125 screening (interpreted using a risk of ovarian cancer algorithm) with transvaginal ultrasound scan as a second-line test (multimodal screening [MMS]; n=50 640); or annual screening with transvaginal ultrasound (USS; n=50 639) alone in a 2:1:1 ratio using a computer-generated random number algorithm. All women provided a blood sample at recruitment. Women randomised to the MMS group had their blood tested for CA125 and those randomised to the USS group were sent an appointment to attend for a transvaginal scan. Women with abnormal screens had repeat tests. Women with persistent abnormality on repeat screens underwent clinical evaluation and, where appropriate, surgery. This trial is registered as ISRCTN22488978 and with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00058032. In the prevalence screen, 50 078 (98.9%) women underwent MMS, and 48 230 (95.2%) underwent USS. The main reasons for withdrawal were death (two MMS, 28 USS), non-ovarian cancer or other disease (none MMS, 66 USS), removal of ovaries (five MMS, 29 USS), relocation (none MMS, 39 USS), failure to attend three appointments for the screen (72 MMS, 757 USS), and participant changing their mind (483 MMS, 1490 USS). Overall, 4355 of 50 078 (8.7%) women in the MMS group and 5779 of 48 230 (12.0%) women in the USS group required a repeat test, and 167 (0.3%) women in the MMS group and 1894 (3.9%) women in the USS group required clinical evaluation. 97 of 50 078 (0.2%) women from the MMS group and 845 of 48 230 (1.8%) from the USS group underwent surgery. 42 (MMS) and 45 (USS) primary ovarian and tubal cancers were detected, including 28 borderline tumours (eight MMS, 20 USS). 28 (16 MMS, 12 USS) of 58 (48.3%; 95% CI 35.0-61.8) of the invasive cancers were stage I/II, with no difference (p=0.396) in stage distribution between the groups. A further 13 (five MMS, eight USS) women developed primary ovarian cancer during the year after the screen. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive-predictive values for all primary ovarian and tubal cancers were 89.4%, 99.8%, and 43.3% for MMS, and 84.9%, 98.2%, and 5.3% for USS, respectively. For primary invasive epithelial ovarian and tubal cancers, the sensitivity, specificity, and positive-predictive values were 89.5%, 99.8%, and 35.1% for MMS, and 75.0%, 98.2%, and 2.8% for USS, respectively. There was a significant difference in specificity (p<0.0001) but not sensitivity between the two screening groups for both primary ovarian and tubal cancers as well as primary epithelial invasive ovarian and tubal cancers. The sensitivity of the MMS and USS screening strategies is encouraging. Specificity was higher in the MMS than in the USS group, resulting in lower rates of repeat testing and surgery. This in part reflects the high prevalence of benign adnexal abnormalities and the more frequent detection of borderline tumours in the USS group. The prevalence screen has established that the screening strategies are feasible. The results of ongoing screening are awaited so that the effect of screening on mortality can be determined.

IA15: Early detection of ovarian cancer: An update

Recently, the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) Trial reported no mortality benefit for annual screening with CA-125 and transvaginal ultrasound (TVU). Currently ongoing is the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS), which utilizes the risk of ovarian cancer algorithm (ROCA), a statistical tool that considers current and past CA125 values to determine ovarian cancer risk. In contrast, PLCO used a single cutoff for CA125, based on current levels alone. We investigated whether having had used ROCA in PLCO could have, under optimal assumptions, resulted in a significant mortality benefit by applying ROCA to PLCO CA125 screening values. A best-case scenario assumed that all cancers showing a positive screen result earlier with ROCA than under the PLCO protocol would have avoided mortality; under a stage-shift scenario, such women were assigned survival equivalent to Stage I/II screen-detected cases. Updated PLCO data show 132 intervention arm ovarian cancer deaths versus 119 in usual care (relative risk, RR = 1.11). Forty-three ovarian cancer cases, 25 fatal, would have been detected earlier with ROCA, with a median (minimum) advance time for fatal cases of 344 (147) days. Best-case and stage-shift scenarios gave 25 and 19 deaths prevented with ROCA, for RRs of 0.90 (95% CI: 0.69-1.17) and 0.95 (95% CI: 0.74-1.23), respectively. Having utilized ROCA in PLCO would not have led to a significant mortality benefit of screening. However, ROCA could still show a significant effect in other screening trials, including UKCTOCS.

Biomarkers for diagnosis: looking for change.

Extended mortality results for ovarian cancer screening in the PLCO trial with median 15 years follow-up

Background. Ovarian cancer is typically diagnosed at an advanced stage, resulting in poor survival. Detection of ovarian cancer at an early curable stage could reduce mortality; however, annual screening with transvaginal ultrasound (TVU) and CA-125 serum levels using predetermined cutpoints did not lower mortality in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) trial. In this trial, approximately 40% of TVU scans resulted in non-visualization of the ovaries. Currently, TVU studies consider non-visualization of the ovaries as having normal ovaries, even though this may confer risk information. Accordingly, we assessed risk of ovarian cancer among women with non-visualization of the ovaries by TVU in the PLCO trial. Methods. Study participants were women from the ovarian screening arm of the PLCO trial. Briefly, women aged 55-74 years were recruited at ten US clinical centers between 1993 and 2001. Those with a previous diagnosis of ovarian cancer were excluded from enrollment. Subjects with at least one ovary underwent a TVU at baseline and annually for 3 additional years and were followed-up for up to 13 years. Individuals were excluded from the current analysis if they did not complete the baseline questionnaire or did not have at least one adequate screening (i.e., visualization of the iliac vessels). Ovaries were considered not visualized if they were not seen after a search of at least 5 minutes. Associations between participant characteristics and ovarian visualization were estimated using logistic regression models adjusted for age and calendar year. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were computed to estimate the risk of ovarian cancer with TVU visualization using Cox proportional hazard models. Age was the time metric and models were adjusted for calendar year, body mass index (BMI), race, parity and oral contraceptive (OC) use. Results. Our analysis included 29,329 women, with 98.6% of them having two or more TVUs. Two hundred and five women were diagnosed with invasive ovarian cancer during follow-up. Lack of visualization of the ovaries by TVU was associated with older age, non-White race, greater BMI, ever use of OC and ever having children. However, ovarian visualization was not associated with risk of ovarian cancer (HR=1.17; 95% CI: 0.86-1.59). Moreover, women with visualized ovaries but negative TVUs were not at elevated ovarian cancer risk compared to women with non-visualized ovaries (HR=1.06; 95% CI: 0.77-1.45). Conclusions. Women with non-visualization of the ovaries by TVU and those with visualization and a negative result do not have a different risk of ovarian cancer, suggesting that data for these women may be combined. Ongoing analysis will examine serial measurements of ovarian volume by TVU and ovarian cancer risk. Citation Format: Clara Bodelon, Amanda Black, Ruth M. Pfeiffer, Mark E. Sherman. Ovarian visualization in transvaginal ultrasound scans and risk of ovarian cancer. [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 104th Annual Meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research; 2013 Apr 6-10; Washington, DC. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2013;73(8 Suppl):Abstract nr 150. doi:10.1158/1538-7445.AM2013-150

The United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS) is the largest randomized clinical trial to evaluate screening's impact on ovarian cancer mortality, assigning women to multimodal screening (MMS) with serum cancer antigen 125 (CA-125) interpreted using a risk algorithm. If the MMS screening method is eventually shown to reduce mortality and be cost-effective, then it may be accepted by the medical community as a feasible screening tool. To estimate the cost-effectiveness of an MMS screening program in the United States. A Markov simulation model was constructed using data from UKCTOCS to compare MMS with no screening in the United States. Screening would begin at the age of 50 years for women in the general population. Published estimates of the long-term effect of MMS screening on ovarian cancer mortality and the trial's published hazard ratios were used to simulate mortality estimates up to 40 years from start of screening. Base-case costs included CA-125, ultrasound, and false-positive work-up results, in addition to a risk algorithm cost estimate of $100. The utility and costs of ovarian cancer treatment were incorporated into the model. Screening strategies varied by costs of the algorithm and treatment for advanced ovarian cancer, rates of screening compliance, ovarian cancer incidence, and extrapolation of ovarian cancer mortality. Costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and mortality reduction of ovarian cancer screening. Multimodal screening is both more expensive and more effective in reducing ovarian cancer mortality over a lifetime than no screening. After accounting for uncertainty in the underlying parameters, screening women starting at age 50 years with MMS is cost-effective 70% of the time, when decision makers are willing to pay $150 000 per QALY. Screening reduced mortality by 15%, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) ranging from $106 187 (95% CI, $97 496-$127 793) to $155 256 (95% CI, $150 369-$198 567). Ovarian cancer screening is potentially cost-effective in the United States depending on final significance of mortality reduction and cost of the CA-125 risk algorithm. These results are limited by uncertainty around the effect of screening on ovarian cancer mortality beyond the 11 years of UKCTOCS.

The United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS) was the biggest ovarian cancer screening trial to date. A non-significant effect of screening on ovarian cancer was reported, but the authors noted a potential delayed effect of screening, and suggested the need for four years further follow-up. There are no UK-based cost-effectiveness analyses of ovarian cancer screening. Hence we assessed the lifetime outcomes associated with, and the cost-effectiveness of, screening for ovarian cancer in the UK, along with the value of further research. We performed a model-based economic evaluation. Effectiveness data were taken from UKCTOCS, which considered strategies of multimodal screening (MMS), ultrasound screening (USS) and no screening. We conducted systematic reviews to identify the remaining model inputs, and performed a rigorous and transparent prospective evaluation of different methods for extrapolating the effect of screening on ovarian cancer mortality. We considered costs to the UK healthcare system and measured effectiveness using quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). We used value of information methods to estimate the value of further research. Over a lifetime, MMS and USS were estimated to be both more expensive and more effective than no screening. USS was dominated by MMS, being both more expensive and less effective. Compared with no screening, MMS cost on average £419 more (95% confidence interval £255 to £578), and generated 0.047 more QALYs (0.002 to 0.088). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) comparing MMS with no screening was £8864 per QALY (£2600 to £51,576). Alternative extrapolation methods increased the ICER, with the highest value being £36,769 (£13,888 to dominated by no screening). Using the UKCTOCS trial horizon, both MMS and USS were dominated by no screening, as they produced fewer QALYs at a greater cost. The value of research into eliminating all uncertainty in long-term effectiveness was estimated to be worth up to £20 million, or approximately £5 million for four years follow-up. Screening for ovarian cancer with MMS is both more effective and more expensive than not screening. Compared to national willingness to pay thresholds, lifetime cost-effectiveness is promising, but there remains considerable uncertainty regarding extrapolated long-term effectiveness.

To evaluate prevalence screening in the first prospective trial of a new ovarian cancer screening (OCS) strategy (risk of ovarian cancer or ROC algorithm) on the basis of age and CA125 profile. Postmenopausal women, > or = 50 years were randomly assigned to a control group or screen group. Screening involved serum CA125, interpreted using the ROC algorithm. Participants with normal results returned to annual screening; those with intermediate results had repeat CA125 testing; and those with elevated values underwent transvaginal ultrasound (TVS). Women with abnormal or persistently equivocal TVS were referred for a gynecologic opinion. Thirteen thousand five hundred eighty-two women were recruited. Of 6,682 women randomly assigned to screening, 6,532 women underwent the first screen. After the initial CA125, 5,213 women were classified as normal risk, 91 women elevated, and 1,228 women intermediate. On repeat CA125 testing of the latter, a further 53 women were classified as elevated risk. All 144 women with elevated risk had TVS. Sixteen women underwent surgery. Eleven women had benign pathology; one woman had ovarian recurrence of breast cancer; one woman had borderline; and three women had primary invasive epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC). The specificity and positive predictive value (PPV) for primary invasive EOC were 99.8% (95% CI, 99.7 to 99.9) and 19% (95% CI, 4.1 to 45.6), respectively. An OCS strategy using the ROC algorithm is feasible and can achieve high specificity and PPV in postmenopausal women. It is being used in the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening and in the United States in both the Cancer Genetics Network and the Gynecology Oncology Group trials of high-risk women.

Pathologic findings following false-positive screening tests for ovarian cancer in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) cancer screening trial

5003 Background: There are currently no effective screening tools for the early detection of ovarian cancer in women at average population risk. We evaluated a screening strategy that incorporates change of CA-125 over time and age of the participant to estimate risk of ovarian cancer, referring a small fraction (∼2%) of apparently healthy individuals annually to transvaginal sonography (TVS). Methods: A single arm, prospective, multicenter screening study enrolled postmenopausal women age 50 to 74 with no significant family history of breast or ovarian cancer. Participants underwent a CA-125 blood test annually. Based on the Risk of Ovarian Cancer Algorithm (ROCA) result, women were triaged to the next annual CA-125 (low risk), repeat CA-125 in 3 months (intermediate risk), or TVS and referral to a gynecologic oncologist (high risk). Based on clinical findings and TVS, the gyn onc made the decision whether to proceed with surgery. Results: 3238 women participated over an eight year period. The average annual rate of referral to 3 monthly CA125 was 6.8%, and the average annual rate of TVS and gyn onc referral was 0.9%. Cumulatively 85 women (2.6%) received TVS and referral to a gyn onc. Eight women subsequently underwent surgery based on the TVS and referral, with 3 invasive ovarian cancers, 2 borderline ovarian tumors and 3 benign ovarian tumors, providing a positive predictive value of 37.5% (95% CI 8.5%,75.5%).The combined specificity of ROCA followed by TVS for referral to surgery is 99.7% (95% CI 99.5%, 99.9%). The 3 invasive ovarian cancers were high-grade epithelial tumors that were all early stage (two stage 1C and stage IIB). All 3 women with invasive ovarian cancer had at least 3 years with low risk, annual CA-125 values prior to a rising CA-125. Conclusions: In this prospective, single arm study, the ROCA followed by TVS demonstrated excellent specificity and PPV in a population of U.S. women at average risk for ovarian cancer. As expected, less than 1% of participants annually required a TVS. In addition, the invasive high-grade ovarian cancers that were detected were early stage. This study provides early evidence that ROCA followed by TVS is a feasible strategy for screening women over 50 years of age. Author Disclosure Employment or Leadership Position Consultant or Advisory Role Stock Ownership Honoraria Research Funding Expert Testimony Other Remuneration Fujiresio Diagnostics Inc Roche Diagnostics Royalties for CA 125

Newly diagnosed and relapsed epithelial ovarian carcinoma: ESMO Clinical Practice Guidelines for diagnosis, treatment and follow-up

Evidence of a mortality benefit continues to elude ovarian cancer (OC) screening. Data from the US Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial which used a screening strategy incorporating CA125 cut-off and transvaginal ultrasound has not shown mortality benefit. The United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS) is using the Risk of Ovarian Cancer (ROC) time series algorithm to interpret CA125, which has shown an encouraging sensitivity and specificity however the mortality data will only be available in 2015. The article explores the impact of growing insights into disease aetiology and evolution and biomarker discovery on future screening strategies. A better understanding of the target lesion, improved design of biomarker discovery studies, a focus on detecting low volume disease using cancer specific markers, novel biospecimens such as cervical cytology and targeted imaging and use of time series algorithms for interpreting markers profile suggests that a new era in screening is underway.