The (non) determinants of Olympic success

Johan Rewilak

doi:10.1177/1527002521992833

Abstract

This paper empirically examines the determinants of Summer Olympic success during the period 1996-2016. By modifying the panel Tobit estimator using the Mundlak transform, the results find that population size and the host effect are the only statistically significant determinants of Olympic attainment. We also show that participating in front of a home crowd will stimulate athletic performance equally for each gender, but the impact of population differs between the sexes. These findings are confirmed using a hurdle estimator. This relaxes the assumption that the factors determining Olympic success are the same as those that influence the quantity of success.

Highlights

Using the correct economic models to gauge how successful a country will be at the Olympic Games is important, as large sums of money are often invested in elite athlete training
The results suggest that a 10% increase in the population will result in a 0.06 percentage point increase in a country’s points share at the Olympic Games
This paper investigates the factors that determine Summer Olympic success

Summary

Introduction

Using the correct economic models to gauge how successful a country will be at the Olympic Games is important, as large sums of money are often invested in elite athlete training. The accuracy of these models is pivotal, as the ability to benchmark performance, given a nation’s resources, may influence the willingness to fund elite sports. The Canadian government spent C$110 m on a program called “Own the Podium” between 2006-2010, focused on enhancing Canadian performance at the Vancouver Winter Olympics (Humphreys et al, 2016). After a successful Winter Olympics by Team Canada, who finished third, 81% of Canadians were happy to maintain this level of funding. Willingness to fund elite athletes is success driven, with funders expecting results from their spending

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