The Nexus of Climate Change, Food Insecurity, and Conflict in Somalia: A Comprehensive Analysis of Multifaceted Challenges and Resilience Strategies

Abstract

Climate change poses a significant threat to Somalia’s food security and stability. This review examines the complex interplay between climate change impacts, food insecurity, and conflict in Somalia. Recent climate data and forecasts paint a concerning picture: the rainfall probabilistic forecast for April- June 2024 indicates a high likelihood of above-normal rainfall across much of Somalia, thus increasing the flood risks. Concurrently, temperature forecasts project above-normal temperatures, potentially exacerbating drought conditions between the rainy seasons. Historical climatology data reveal Somalia’s vulnerability, with average temperatures ranging from 25°C to 30°C and significant seasonal variations affecting agriculture and water resources. These climate trends, combined with ongoing political instability and weak governance, have created a storm of challenges. This perspective explores how recurrent droughts and floods disrupt agricultural production, decimate livestock, and displace vulnerable populations, particularly those affecting rural and nomadic communities. It also examines how environmental stress exacerbates poverty and conflict, thereby creating a vicious cycle of vulnerability. This analysis draws on recent data on poverty rates, food expenditure patterns, and climate-related displacement, to illustrate the multifaceted nature of the crisis. Finally, this perspective proposed recommendations for building climate resilience, enhancing food security, and promoting sustainable development in Somalia, emphasizing the need for integrated approaches that combine immediate humanitarian assistance with long-term adaptation strategies.