The New Triad (Counterproliferation Paper, Number 55)

Abstract

Abstract : On April 5, 2009 President Obama introduced his vision of reducing nuclear dangers and overcoming grave and growing threats by seeking the peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons. 1 Whether or not this is an obtainable goal or even in the National Security Interests of the U.S., reducing the number of nuclear weapons is a plausible endeavor. As stated in the third objective of the 2010 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) the U.S. must continue maintaining strategic deterrence and stability at reduced nuclear force levels. 2 Additionally, the U.S. must continue to provide assurance to allies who are covered under the U.S. nuclear deterrence umbrella. More significant reductions are possible through a mindset change regarding the traditional nuclear triad consisting of Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs), Submarine Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBMs) and nuclear bombers. Specifically, this paper proposes a new version of the nuclear triad one centered on hardened mobile ICBMs as a means to a survivable nuclear deterrent on the road to zero. In fact, it is possible to substantially reduce the number of nuclear weapons well below new START numbers and still maintain national security. The existing nuclear triad may presently provide an effective deterrent against Russia, and other nuclear weapon states. However, U.S. security could be compromised if we agree to much deeper cuts in strategic forces in future arms control agreements and, after having done so, Russia once again becomes an adversary perhaps after a new crisis in Georgia, Ukraine, or one of the Baltic states. As I demonstrate in the following pages, an economical way to enhance survivability and account for such a strategic development is to revisit the Midgetman a concept that has already been designed and tested.