Abstract
Rational expectations require more information than adaptive expectations and thus must be more costly. In a standard macro model the losses associated with adaptive expectations are shown to be very small indeed, even for quite large monetary disturbances. As a result adaptive expectations may be close to optimal, as long as the monetary regime is relatively stable. Further, with adaptive expectations, fully anticipated monetary changes lead to large and persistent fluctuations in aggregate output. This is true even if only a very small percentage of firms behave adaptively.
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