The multi-scenario projection of cost reduction in hydrogen production by proton exchange membrane (PEM) water electrolysis in the near future (2020–2060) of China

Abstract

The production and utilization of green hydrogen is of utmost importance to achieve the dual carbon national strategy of China, i.e., carbon peaking in 2030 and carbon neutrality in 2060. The proton exchange membrane water electrolysis (PEMWE), with the advantage of the fast dynamic operation adapting to the non-uniformity and intermittency of renewable energy, is capable of producing hydrogen with higher purity. To calculate hydrogen production costs from 2020 to 2040, we used the bottom-up method to determine the capital cost of PEM electrolyzers, which is brought into the H2A model along with electricity price predicted for China. In 2040–2060, the learning curve was used to predict the decline of the capital cost of the electrolyzer. We analyzed two scenarios during this period, considering whether the operational performance of the electrolyzer such as voltage and current density is improved. The calculated cost of hydrogen production will reduce from 7.26 $/kg to 2.60 $/kg mainly because of the capital cost reduction of the electrolyzer system from 4450 $/kW to 812 $/kW and the decline of the electricity cost. The capital cost and electricity cost account for 47.6% and 34.7% of the current total cost, respectively, while the electricity cost is projected to be the dominant and will account for 56.4% of the total cost in the scenario of 2040–2060. The cost price of 2.60 $/kg will show an advantage when the carbon tax of 78.82 $/t CO2 eq. for coal gasification and 107.48 $/t CO2 eq. for steam-methane reforming are imposed.