Abstract
Changes in extreme precipitation are critical to assess the potential impacts of climate change on human and natural systems. This paper provides a comprehensive investigation on the multi-scale temporal variability of extreme precipitation in the Source Region of the Yellow River (SRYR). The statistical analysis explores multi-scale extreme precipitation variability ranging from short to long term, including seasonal, annual, and inter-annual variations at different locations in the SRYR. The results suggest that seasonal patterns of extreme precipitation do not always follow the seasonal pattern of total precipitation. Heavy precipitation mostly happens during the period from May and October with July as the peak, while dry conditions are mostly seen in winter seasons. However, there are no significant annual trends for most indices at most locations. The extreme heavy precipitation presents an increasing trend at high elevation and decreasing trend at low elevation. The extreme dry condition presents more consistently decreasing trends at nearly all locations. Long-term analyses indicate that most of the selected indices except average daily intensity display multi-year bands ranging from 2 to 8 years which is probably due to the effects of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). A further evaluation on how the ENSO events would impact extreme precipitation shows that eastern Pacific warming (EPW) and central Pacific warming (CPW) would bring less extreme heavy precipitation compared to normal years. These results can provide a beneficial reference to understand the temporal variability of extreme precipitation in the SRYR.
Highlights
Extreme climate events have received increasing attention from public, government and academic communities due to their catastrophic effects on agriculture, ecology and life [1,2,3,4]
Extreme heavy precipitation events mostly happen between May and October with July as the peak value month at most locations
R20 displays different consistency: R20 at Ruoergai has the highest value while the total precipitation ranks 3rd among the 10 locations, which indicates that precipitation at Ruoergai exhibits a higher intensity and lower duration pattern compared with precipitation at other locations
Summary
Extreme climate events have received increasing attention from public, government and academic communities due to their catastrophic effects on agriculture, ecology and life [1,2,3,4]. Changes in climate directly enhance precipitation extremes as global warming induces a large increase in atmospheric water vapor content which accelerates the hydrologic cycle [5,6,7]. The changes in precipitation extremes are projected to continue into the future [10,11]. Previous studies indicate that both human-induced global warming and natural variability contribute to the recent extreme precipitation [12,13,14,15]. An increasing trend in the precipitation extremes has been observed over the US during the past few decades due to human-induced global warming [16]. The variation of large-scale ocean-atmospheric circulation patterns makes a non-negligible contribution to the recent high extreme precipitation values [13]. Cayan et al [17] and
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