Abstract

Geomagnetically disturbed periods, characterized by the maximum average 24-hour global disturbances are considered. Gumbel's first asymptotic distribution of extreme values is used to predict the occurrence of major magnetic storm periods. A geomagnetic storm similar to the one recorded on March 13 - 14, 1998, would be expected to occur within the next 13 solar cycles. The present analysis corroborates the substantial increase of the level of magnetic disturbances from solar cycle to solar cycle.

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