Seismic risk in southern Europe through to India examined using Gumbel's third distribution of extreme values

Abstract

A technique is described for the analysis of seismicity using Gumbel's third asymptotic distribution of extreme values. Seismicity of southern Europe through to India, nominally for the period 1900–74, is subdivided in a cellular manner, without recourse to tectonic discrimination between regions, and a covariance analysis on the three parameters of Gumbel's distribution is performed for each cell of seismicity. The results indicate that the upper bound to the magnitude of earthquake occurrence is often uncertain although it is discernible, while curvature of the earthquake occurrence distributions is usually established. Uncertainties in the forecasts of largest earthquakes, with a return period of 75 yr, are distinctly improved by taking into account the large and negative covariance which is measured between the curvature and upper bound to earthquake magnitude for the observed seismicity. These results are then used to map seismic risk for southern Europe through to India.