Flood Frequency Analysis of Araniar Medium Irrigation Project in Chittoor District by using Gumbel's Distribution

Abstract

Flood frequency analysis is one of the most important statistical technique to understand the nature and magnitude of high discharge of floods in the river. The objective of flood frequency analysis was to relate the magnitude of floods and their frequency of occurrence through probability distribution. Flood frequency analysis is essential to reduce the impact of flood damage by predicting the floods by adopting the suitable flood prediction model. The Araniar reservoir was constructed across the Araniar river in the Chittoor district of Andhra Pradesh. The flood frequency analysis was conducted on the Araniar reservoir using Gumbel’s extreme value distribution method in the year 2019-2020. Daily maximum inflow data from the Department of Water Resources, Andhra Pradesh, were collected for the period 1990-2019 and used for flood frequency analysis of Araniar Reservoir using Gumbel's extreme value distribution method. From the observations of Gumbel’s distribution, the R2 value acquired from the trend line equation was 0.9803, indicating that Gumbel's extreme value distribution was suitable for estimating predicted reservoir flood flow. The estimated flood flow for upcoming years of 2 years, 10 years, 50 years, 100 years,150 years, 200 years, 300 years and 400 years were found to be 38.29 Mm3/year, 66.96 Mm3/year, 92.08 Mm3/year, 102.71 Mm3/year, 108.90 Mm3/year, 113.29 Mm3/year, 119.47 Mm3/year and 123.85 Mm3/year respectively. The mean instantaneous flow in the reservoir was 40.88149 Mm3/year which was nearly equal to a return period of about 2 years. The estimated flood flows of the Araniar reservoir was useful for constructing important dam hydraulic structures, advising agricultural patterns in the command area, and protecting lives and property downstream of the catchment region.