The Modelbase: An Architecture for Organizational Adaptive Decision-Making

Abstract

Abstract This paper describes the application of the modelbase, newly developed softwarearchitecture for adaptive forward-looking processes, for organizationalstrategic management and complex project design and decision-making underconditions of uncertainty and change in the offshore oil and gas industry. Themodelbase is designed to maintain a live model of the organization againstwhich new opportunities and alternative designs can be tested and adapted asnew information is obtained. The technology described has potentially wide application across the industrybut particularly in the following areas:Enterprise Strategic Decision-MakingAdaptive Development Strategic Design and ManagementEnterprise Knowledge-Sharing and re-use The paper show that the application of the techniques embedded in themodelbase, enable the organization to obtain a collective understanding of thefuture challenges and uncertainties facing the business, and this leads to bothbetter and more adaptive decision-making which in turn increases the " strategicproductivity" of the organization and significantly adds to the organizationalwide value created by new developments, exploration and research. The methods described in the paper have significance to the industry in thefollowing areas:New methods for managing models, collaborative model building and knowledgesharingMethods for adaptive organizational, development and infrastructuredesignActive learning and dynamic optimization of the E&P process fromexploration through to production Introduction The oil industry, like other industries has to date focused its performancemanagement initiatives on operational efficiency and short-term tacticaldecision-making. The methods used for long-term decision-making underuncertainty that decide the strategic investment in exploration, innovation andcapital projects, the industry's engines of growth, are largely based on thosedeveloped by Hertz1 for general project evaluation and by Newendorp2 and othersfor specific problems in the oil industry in the 1960's and 1970's. WhenNewendorp did his work, most of the analysis was intended to be performed byhand with aid of scientific calculators. Since that time the power of the personal computer / workstation has grown byapproximately one half a million times, we can now perform analyses in secondson a laptop computer that were inconceivable in the 1970's on the most powerfulmainframe. Cloud and Multi-core architectures extend this capability massivelyand the available power continues to expand exponentially, the oil industry isone of the largest users of such systems. This power enables the ability to runenterprise-wide simulations and investigate literally millions of alternativestrategies with embedded options, under different conditions of uncertainty andto run this on demand as new opportunities or external events dictate.