The Migration of Youth and the Business Cycle: 1978 to 1984

Abstract

This study examines the migration patterns of youth from 1978 to 1984. It compares the movement of youth into and out of four areas: Ohio, Michigan, Texas, and New England. Ohio and Michigan represent areas of high unemployment during the 1980-1982 recession, Texas represents a high growth state, and New England an area in the process of reindustrialization. The authors find that the immigration of youth is highly cyclical and that in a downturn relative to the rest of the nation, a state can lose a substantial portion of its youth, the next generation of the state's labor supply. Youths migrating from depressed regions tend to be more highly educated males. However, there is some support for the hypothesis that a state-supported jobs program can tide youth over the downturn and raise their long-term retention probability.