The Method of Trajectory Selection Based on Bayesian Game Model

Abstract

To cope with the problem that most of the en-route spatial-temporal resource allocation in the collaborative trajectory options program (CTOP) only considers the air traffic control system command center (ATCSCC) while ignoring the needs of the airlines, which results in the loss of fairness, this study explores resource allocation methods oriented to airline trajectory preferences with optional trajectory and entry slots of flights over the flow constrained area (FCA) as the research object. Using game theory to analyze airline trajectory preference information and a Bayesian game model based on mixed strategies is constructed, the process of incomplete information game among airlines is studied. The equilibrium theory is used to solve the guarantee strategy of airline trajectory selection, which makes the airline trajectory selection strategy robust and provides a basis for the selection of schemes for ATCSCC to implement en-route network resource allocation under the CTOP. Experimental analysis was carried out to verify the feasibility of the method based on the actual operation data of high-altitude sectors of Shanghai. The results show that the solution obtained by the game can provide airlines with flight trajectory and entry slots over the FCA that are more in line with their actual operational needs and which provide data reference for the ATCSCC to select the final plan in multiple global Pareto optimal solutions in the subsequent process of the CTOP so as to better play the decision-making role of airlines in the CTOP while improving the fairness of en-route resource allocation.