Abstract
Abstract. The mid-summer drought, veranillo or canícula, is a phenomenon experienced in many areas, including Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean. It generally is experienced as reduced rainfall in July–August, in the middle of the typical rainy season (May–September). Many past studies have attempted to quantify changes in mid-summer drought characteristics during the recent past or for future climate projections. To do this, objective definitions of a mid-summer drought's occurrence, strength, and duration have been developed by many researchers. In this effort we adopt a recent set of definitions and examine the impact of varying these on the characterization of mid-summer droughts and the detected changes over the past 4 decades. We find the selection of a minimum intensity threshold has a dramatic effect on the results of both the area considered as experiencing a mid-summer drought and the changes detected in the recent historical record. The intensity chosen can affect both the magnitude and direction of changes reported in the recent observed record. Further, we find that the typical mid-summer drought pattern may not be occurring during the time it has historically; whether examining past or future changes or developing improved seasonal forecasts, the non-stationarity of its timing should be accommodated.
Highlights
In many parts of Mexico and Central America there is a well-defined summer rainy season, often marked by early and late peak periods separated by a brief period of reduced rainfall
The Mesoamerican mid-summer drought (MSD) is typically defined by a set of precipitation characteristics
We examined the four precipitation characteristics defining the dry period between two peaks, centered in July and August: duration, intensity, the timing, and consistency
Summary
In many parts of Mexico and Central America (usually on the Pacific slope) there is a well-defined summer rainy season, often marked by early and late peak periods separated by a brief period of reduced rainfall. This reduced rainfall event, which typically persists for 2–4 weeks in July–August, is often referred to as the mid-summer drought (MSD) in the climate science community. In many regions of Central America, the timing and magnitude of the early and late rainy periods are critical for a first and possible second planting season; subsistence farmers who mostly rely on rain-fed agricultural practices must time their planting and harvesting to anticipate the end of the MSD and the arrival of a second peak of rainfall. How the presence of an MSD pattern and its timing, intensity, and duration are affected by climate variability and change is intimately tied to the agricultural cycle and farmer livelihoods
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