The Mekong Subregional Cooperation Framework: A Geopolitical Dilemma and the Ways Forward

Abstract

The Mekong Subregional Cooperation Framework:A Geopolitical Dilemma and the Ways Forward Charadine Pich (bio) In the current environment of regional security architecture dynamics, complex geopolitical dilemmas, and the congestion of subregional cooperation mechanisms, the Mekong is no longer just a river but also a core ground for competition in a broader context for power play among the major powers. Some observers have even highlighted that the issue of Mekong geopolitics could follow the trajectory of the South China Sea disputes in the near future if it is not taken seriously. For the riparian states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), successfully managing geopolitical contestation over the river and its resources is of critical importance. ASEAN and the Mekong: A Diverging Path? The Mekong River (known as the Lancang in China) begins in the Tibetan Plateau and passes through China, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam before joining the South China Sea. The Mekong basin is one of the most biodiverse areas in the world, sustaining around sixty-six million people. This figure amounts to 10% of ASEAN's total population and includes "most of the population of Laos and Cambodia, one-third of Thailand's sixty-five million, and one-fifth of Vietnam's ninety million people."1 At stake in the river's management are issues such as water sharing, dams and hydroelectricity production, fisheries, irrigation, environmental conservation, and climate change mitigation. The ASEAN countries are mostly divided into two camps over issues pertaining to the river: mainland Southeast Asia and maritime Southeast Asia. States in the former put the Mekong River among their top priorities because of the river's importance to the livelihoods of their people as well as their vulnerability to changes in the water flow from upstream by virtue of residing in the Lower Mekong region. States in the latter group, on the other hand, do not have a share of the river and consider issues regarding [End Page 57] the Mekong not primarily as security concerns but more in terms of their technical and environmental aspects. The troubles over the Mekong River have been largely viewed through an environmental and socioeconomic lens and seen as affecting only the mainland countries of ASEAN rather than ASEAN as a whole. Hence, the river's linkages with the region's broader security and geopolitical considerations have been given less attention. In contrast, although not all ASEAN member states are claimants in the South China Sea disputes, this particular issue is largely considered a wider security dilemma in the broader region of Southeast Asia and beyond and a major threat to regional peace, security, and stability. Although it might not be entirely fair to compare Mekong geopolitics to those of the South China Sea, there is no better approach to understand the Mekong security dilemma than to look at it through that benchmark. The disputes have been widely regarded as an alarming security threat for all of Southeast Asia that could jeopardize regional peace and security if not cautiously monitored. This risk is due to the diverse military presence and, to a certain extent, the arms race surrounding the area. While the Mekong security dilemma has not yet warranted this same level of heightened concern, many regional analysts are cautious of unprecedented trends in the Mekong given the increasing involvement of external actors and development partners alike. The Mekong issue has not yet attained a regional status or posed "alarming" threats that encourage discussions at the regional level among all the ASEAN member states or priority placement on any existing ASEAN agenda. In fact, Vietnam tried to slot the Mekong agenda into the wider discourse within ASEAN platforms during its 2020 chairmanship but found "very limited success."2 In part, this omission was due to the Covid-19 outbreak, which disrupted traditional ASEAN practices and shifted regional attention to focus more on public health and economic recovery. Nonetheless, Vietnam's attempt to highlight the Mekong on the ASEAN agenda was met with reservations from both maritime and mainland members. The maritime ASEAN states see Mekong issues as only affecting the mainland states and thus believe they should be dealt with through existing frameworks at the...