The main patterns of economic development in conditions of global instability

Abstract

With global instability and constant changes on the world stage, forming national economic activity becomes a critical task for every country. Favorable economic environment and fair opportunities for all citizens are the basis of stable development and inclusive growth. Embarking on this path, the country faces numerous challenges, such as the changing geopolitical situation, economic turbulence, social inequalities, and other factors that affect its economy. The purpose of the article is to research the main patterns of economic development in conditions of global instability. Modeling patterns of changes in GDP indicators using trend equations is based on statistical methods for analysis and forecasting of economic processes. The results of the calculations showed that in forecast estimates of nominal GDP, for forecast estimates of real GDP in conditions of global instability and war in Ukraine, the value of forecast estimate I can be considered unrealistic, forecast estimate II corresponds to the period of post-war recovery, and forecast estimate III characterizes the possible estimated value of real GDP of Ukraine after the completion of reconstruction processes and corresponds to the beginning of the next cycle of economic growth. In other words, it is possible to claim that as soon as the real GDP of Ukraine reaches the level of the forecast estimate III (5298029 million UAH), it is possible to consider that we have returned to the previously formed patterns of changes in GDP and economic growth. It is proven that price indices become even more important in the conditions of global challenges, such as economic instability and world crises. This is because they can help forecast market trends and make important decisions regarding the economy's development and the state's fiscal policy. In particular, the consumer price index can influence the state's monetary policy, and the producer price index can indicate the state of production and exports in the country. Important indicators reflecting the level of inflation in the country and the state of the economy are indices of consumer prices and manufacturers of industrial products. They play an essential role in the system of inclusive development because inflation can affect the population's standard of living and income distribution. Moreover, the index of consumer prices and prices of producers of industrial products can indicate the general economic situation in the country and the world, as well as the level of inflation. Keywords: development of the national economy, regularities, global instability.